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🛢️ Venezuela Oil, India’s Windfall

PLUS: India, EU Near Trade Deal

Author

Ruchirr Sharma
January 05, 2026

 

Good morning and a very happy new year 🎉 The first working Monday of the year is here - may your coffee be strong and your inbox be kind.

Let. Us. Get. This. Bread 🍞 đź’Ş 

Ruchirr Sharma & Shatakshi Sharmaa  

TABLE OF CONTENTS

OIL

For years, India’s Venezuela bet was frozen in time. Billions of dollars’ worth of oil sat underground, Indian investments sat unpaid, and sanctions made sure nothing moved. That status quo may finally be cracking.

Here’s the backdrop. Until 2020, India was a major buyer of Venezuelan heavy crude, importing over 400,000 barrels a day. Then US sanctions hit. Payments stopped. Equipment could not move. ONGC Videsh, India’s overseas oil arm, was left with productive oilfields on paper and stranded cash in reality, nearly $1 billion in unpaid dues.

Now comes the reset. A US-led takeover or restructuring of Venezuela’s oil sector could ease sanctions, revive output, and reopen export pipelines. In plain English, Washington steps in, money and technology return, oil starts flowing again.

What does that mean for India? Three big things.

  1. Cash recovery. Once oil exports resume, ONGC Videsh can finally recover its long-stuck dividends and investments.

  2. Supply security. Indian refiners are built to handle Venezuela’s thick, heavy crude. Restarting these flows gives India another major source of oil at a time when it is trying to reduce overdependence on any single region.

  3. Leverage. More supply options mean better price negotiations and lower geopolitical risk.

Zooming out, this is not just about India and Venezuela. It reshapes global oil markets, reins in China’s dominance in Venezuelan crude, and strengthens US influence over energy supply. For India, it marks a shift from helpless bystander to potential beneficiary, turning a long-frozen asset into a strategic advantage almost overnight.

TRADE DEAL

After more than a decade of stop-start talks, India and the European Union are back at the table and closer than ever to sealing a trade pact. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal heads to Brussels this week, signalling that negotiations have entered the endgame.

Quick rewind. India and the EU first tried to strike a free trade deal in the early 2010s. Talks collapsed in 2013 over market access, tariffs, and rules around intellectual property. For years, nothing moved. Fast forward to 2022, negotiations restart. By late 2025, they are in what officials call the “most difficult” phase. Translation: the big political compromises.

Why this matters. The EU is already India’s largest trading partner for goods, with over $136 billion in annual trade. Nearly one-fifth of India’s exports head to Europe. A deal would lower tariffs, smooth regulations, and make Indian goods like garments, pharmaceuticals, steel, and machinery more competitive in a high-value market.

What’s still tricky. Europe wants India to cut duties on cars, wine, and medical devices, and to accept tougher intellectual property rules. India, meanwhile, is pushing back on the EU’s carbon border tax, which could make Indian exports costlier under the banner of climate policy.

The broader picture is strategic. India is racing to lock in trade partners as global supply chains reset and protectionism rises. Europe wants a reliable manufacturing and consumption partner beyond China. If this pact lands, it reshapes trade flows, boosts Indian exports, and anchors India more firmly in global commerce.

In short: years of deadlock may finally give way to a deal that redraws India–EU economic ties.

GENERAL OVERVIEW

🗞️ Bite-sized summaries

🏅 Olympic Ambition 2036 - India is setting an ambitious sporting roadmap, with plans to host the 2036 Olympic Games in Gujarat after staging the Commonwealth Games in 2030, ICC chairman Jay Shah said. Speaking in Surat, Shah credited Prime Minister Narendra Modi for securing the Commonwealth Games and outlined a bold medal target of 100 medals at the 2036 Olympics, including 10 from Gujarat. He said women athletes are expected to win at least two of those medals. Shah also highlighted India’s improving sporting culture, citing recent cricket successes and the rising aspirations of young girls inspired by women cricketers.

📆 Insurance Reset Year - 2025 marked a turning point for India’s insurance sector. The removal of GST on life and health premiums made coverage more affordable and expanded access, while tighter regulations and commission reforms improved transparency and trust. Digital adoption accelerated, with AI-led underwriting and online servicing reshaping how policies are sold and managed, especially in semi-urban and rural areas. At the same time, insurers faced margin pressure, rising claims from extreme weather and large accidents, and new data protection rules. Overall, the year reset incentives and responsibilities, setting the stage for a more resilient, consumer-focused insurance ecosystem in 2026.

HEADLINES

🧑‍🍳 What else is cookin’?

What’s happening in India (and around the world 🌍️)

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