🇮🇳 India’s defense posture

Good morning. Let’s get after it relentlessly today.

Ruchirr Sharma & Shatakshi Sharmaa  

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• 🇮🇳 India’s defense posture

• 📈 India overtakes Japan to become 4th largest economy

• 🗞️ Bite-sized summaries

  • 🧑‍💻 Coding agents

  • 🍩 Sugar-free options

• 🧑‍🍳 What else is cookin’?

• 🍿 Entertainment, Entertainment, Entertainment

MARKETS

🇮🇳 India

• Indian equity markets closed sharply lower in their most volatile session in a month, as escalating India-Pakistan tensions triggered widespread selling. Metal stocks led sectoral declines, while IT stocks offered some support. The Indian rupee weakened to ₹85.59 per dollar, and broader indices underperformed as concerns over potential conflict and capital outflows weighed on sentiment.

🌍️ International

• US stocks closed higher on Thursday as investors cheered the announcement of a new trade agreement between the US and Britain, while chip stocks surged on hopes of relaxed export curbs for AI semiconductors. Semiconductor leaders like Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD posted strong gains, helping propel Wall Street to its third straight positive session. The rally came despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and warning of increased risks from inflation and unemployment, with traders now expecting rate cuts later in the year.

INDIAN ARMED FORCES

🇮🇳 India’s defense posture

A recent report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) outlines a clear shift in India’s strategic focus under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, placing China at the forefront of its national security concerns.

While Pakistan remains a security challenge, it is now viewed more as a manageable, secondary issue.

Here’s wha the report says:

• India's defence priorities for 2025 revolve around asserting global leadership, strengthening military capabilities, and countering China’s growing influence, particularly in the Indian Ocean.

• Despite a flare-up of hostilities with Pakistan earlier in May—including missile and drone exchanges following a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir—the DIA states that India’s long-term focus remains firmly on Beijing.

Tensions with China persist, especially around the unresolved border demarcation along the Line of Actual Control, though last year’s disengagement efforts have somewhat eased immediate friction. However, the strategic rivalry continues to shape India’s defence engagements, especially in the Indo-Pacific. New Delhi is deepening ties through multilateral platforms like the Quad, BRICS, SCO, and ASEAN, while ramping up trilateral cooperation in the region.

The report also highlights India’s efforts to build self-reliance in defence through the “Made in India” initiative. In 2024, the country advanced its military modernization with key weapons tests and the commissioning of its second nuclear-powered submarine, strengthening its nuclear deterrence.

Overall: On the global stage, India is also carefully balancing its historical ties with Russia. While New Delhi has scaled back the procurement of Russian arms, it remains dependent on Russian spare parts to maintain its military hardware—critical for defence readiness against both China and Pakistan. The report notes that India sees continued value in its Russia relationship, both for defence and as a strategic counterweight to the deepening Moscow-Beijing axis.

Read more: Times of India

INDIAN ECONOMY

📈 India overtakes Japan to become 4th largest economy

India has officially become the world’s fourth-largest economy, leapfrogging Japan, according to NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam. Speaking on the back of fresh IMF data, Subrahmanyam announced that India has reached a $4 trillion economy milestone, placing it behind only the United States, China, and Germany.

This historic economic leap reflects more than just numbers—it marks a transformation in India’s global standing. A decade ago, India was part of the so-called "Fragile Five" economies. Today, it stands as a top-five economic powerhouse, with ambitions to break into the top three within the next three years.

The International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook supports this projection:

• It estimates India's GDP will reach $4.19 trillion in 2025, edging out Japan.

• While growth is expected to slow slightly to 6.2% in 2025–26—due to rising global uncertainty and trade tensions—India’s trajectory remains strong.

• Rural consumption and private spending continue to serve as key engines of growth.

Beyond headline figures, there has been meaningful progress on the ground. India’s per capita income has doubled since 2014, rising from $1,438 to $2,880. Yet, there’s a long road ahead. To be classified as a high-income country, per capita income must exceed $14,000—a target India aims to hit by 2047.

That goal is part of a broader national vision: Viksit Bharat @ 2047, an initiative to transform India into a fully developed nation by its 100th year of independence. The roadmap envisions a $30 trillion economy anchored in six strategic pillars—from macroeconomic resilience and citizen empowerment to technological leadership and good governance.

Read more: Economic Times

GENERAL OVERVIEW

🗞️ Bite-sized summaries

🧑‍💻 Coding agents - AI-powered coding agents are transforming software development. This week, Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI launched upgrades that go beyond code suggestions—these agents now fix bugs, add features, and grasp developer intent. Microsoft’s GitHub Copilot, OpenAI’s Codex, and Google DeepMind’s AlphaEvolve mark a shift toward autonomous, goal-driven tools. Coding is emerging as a leading use case for agentic AI, thanks to its fast feedback loop. While issues like logic errors remain, productivity gains are significant. AI now writes up to a third of Big Tech’s code and up to 80% at some Indian startups, signaling a fundamental change in how software is built.

🍩 Sugar-free options - Prime Minister Narendra Modi praised the CBSE's new initiative to install 'Sugar Boards' in schools, aimed at raising awareness among students about the risks of high sugar intake. These boards will visually show sugar content in popular snacks and drinks, helping children make healthier food choices. The move, prompted by rising Type 2 diabetes cases in students, is to be implemented in all CBSE-affiliated schools by July 15, 2025. PM Modi called it a step toward building lifelong healthy habits and a “Fit India.” Schools will also conduct workshops to further promote informed dietary decisions among students.

HEADLINES

🧑‍🍳 What else is cookin’?

What’s happening in India (and around the world 🌍️)

• Elon Musk to step back from politics, refocus on Tesla, SpaceX, X and xAI.

• Government to unveil Bharat Forecasting System on Monday.

• Tata Group investing big in hotels in northeastern states with rising tourist footfall.

• UP government to invest Rs 6,124 crore on building ring roads, bypasses.

• Dr Reddy's gets 2 observations from USFDA for Telangana API plant.