🇺🇸 Calling Trump’s bluff

Good morning. It’s going to be a great day - let’s go after it 💪 

Ruchirr Sharma & Shatakshi Sharmaa  

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• 🇺🇸 Calling Trump’s bluff

• 🇨🇳 India’s electronics makers are decoupling from China

• 🗞️ Bite-sized summaries

  • ✈️ Boeing hits delivery milestone

  • 🎬️ How Netflix keeps winning over top directors

• 🧑‍🍳 What else is cookin’?

MARKETS

🇮🇳 India

• The Indian stock market closed higher as positive global cues and hopes of eased trade tensions lifted investor sentiment. Strong buying in sectors like banking and IT, along with support from domestic institutional investors, contributed to the gains. Reduced volatility and technical strength further encouraged optimism, helping the market end the day on a positive note.

TARIFFS

🇺🇸 Calling Trump’s bluff

President Trump just threatened new tariffs on 14 countries, with rates between 25 and 40 percent set to begin August 1. Markets, however, barely reacted.

Unlike the sell-off we saw in April after his initial tariff talk, this time investors stayed cool. Asian stocks were steady, European markets actually rose, and Wall Street was cautious but far from panicked.

Why the calm? Two words: Trump’s flexibility. While the letters went out, he told reporters the August 1 deadline was “firm, but not 100 percent firm.” That hint of negotiation has traders betting he might walk it back. Analysts are calling it the return of the “TACO” trade - short for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

Another reason for the muted response is who didn’t get a letter. Big players like the EU, India, and Taiwan weren’t on the list. That could mean deals are already in the works or being fast-tracked, especially since some goods may get exemptions.

But the bigger picture is less comforting. If no deals are made, average US import tariffs could rise to 17.3 percent from 15.5 percent. Just a year ago, they were 2.5 percent. While the short-term impact on consumer prices may be small, higher costs are likely to creep in, especially in targeted sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and rare minerals.

In short, markets are calling Trump’s bluff. But if he follows through, the global economy might not shrug it off so easily next time.

Read more: CNBC

MANUFACTURING

🇨🇳 India’s electronics makers are decoupling from China

With the clock ticking on a key government incentive scheme, India’s top electronics manufacturers are racing to forge new partnerships, with one major twist: no China.

Companies like Dixon Technologies, Amber Enterprises, Optiemus, and Bhagwati Products are finalizing joint ventures with firms from South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan.

Why the sudden pivot? Blame geopolitics. After India’s 2020 border clashes with China, the government introduced strict FDI rules under Press Note 3, making it harder for Chinese investments to get approved. Combine that with recent Chinese export curbs on rare earth magnets, and the message is clear: diversify or get left behind.

The stakes are high. The electronics component manufacturing scheme, which closes for applications this month, has a ₹22,919 crore outlay and aims to dramatically boost domestic value addition - currently stuck at around 20 percent. The goal: attract ₹59,000 crore in investment, manufacture goods worth over ₹4.5 lakh crore, and create nearly 100,000 jobs.

Amber Enterprises is eyeing a ₹4,000 crore commitment, including a high-tech JV with Korea Circuit. Dixon is ironing out terms with South Korean and Taiwanese partners. Others are doing the same, with an emphasis on minimizing exposure to Chinese capital and tech.

The big picture: India is building a resilient, self-reliant electronics supply chain - and it’s doing it with friends who aren’t China. As geopolitical tensions reshape global trade, India’s manufacturers are aligning with like-minded partners to future-proof their growth and stay eligible for government incentives. The China+1 strategy is no longer just theory. It’s policy.

Read more: Economic Times

GENERAL OVERVIEW

🗞️ Bite-sized summaries

✈️ Boeing hits delivery milestone - Boeing delivered 60 airplanes in June 2025, its highest monthly tally since December 2023, signaling recovery after the 737 Max 9 door plug crisis. Of these, 42 were 737 Max jets, sent to carriers like Southwest, Alaska, and United. In Q2, Boeing handed over 150 planes, its strongest quarter since 2018. CEO Kelly Ortberg said the company is stabilizing production, which currently caps at 38 Max jets monthly pending FAA approval to expand. Boeing logged 70 net orders in June and now has a backlog of 5,953 aircraft. Investors await more on Ortberg’s ramp-up plan in Q2 results.

🎬️ How Netflix keeps winning over top directors - Netflix continues to draw A-list directors like Greta Gerwig, Martin Scorsese, and Rian Johnson by offering creative freedom, massive global reach (300M+ subscribers), and lucrative deals—often for projects that traditional studios reject due to budget or risk. Unlike traditional box office models, Netflix bypasses theaters to focus on streaming, prioritizing subscriber value over ticket revenue. Its strategy saves marketing costs, sidesteps box-office risk, and still lands awards—Netflix has had a Best Picture contender at the Oscars every year since 2019. With plans to spend $18B on content in 2025, Netflix is betting big on prestige talent—and viewers may soon pay more.

HEADLINES

🧑‍🍳 What else is cookin’?

What’s happening in India (and around the world 🌍️)

• Former UK PM Rishi Sunak to join Goldman Sachs as senior adviser.

• Trump says Fed's Jerome Powell should resign immediately.

• Trump says all BRICS nations, including India, to face additional 10% tariff.

• Elon Musk’s X says Indian government ordered over 2,000 accounts blocked, including Reuters.

• Southeast Asia needn’t take sides in US-China tech rivalry. It can learn from both, experts say.